Monday, March 23, 2009

March 23 aftn update

I woke up before noon to consider whether to prepare for a chase. Not unlike many set-ups while I'm on nights... I'm still sitting at home, considering going back to bed to get some more sleep!

Color me surprised, but convective initiation has already occurred along the dryline, in an arc from Brady NE east-southeast to Kearney NE and then south-southeast to Osborne/Lincoln, KS. In hindsight, this is likely a result of deep mixing in the moist sector with sfc temps rising well through the 70s (5-10F warmer than forecast). Deep convection is also trying to form farther south, from Medicine Lodge KS down toward Clinton OK... though its been unsuccessful thus far... probably will have a better shot as mid-level cooling/lift continues to overspread the dryline.

For the northern stuff, surface obs show T/Td spreads of 22-25F... so for now the tornado threat would seem to be low.

Sfc winds are sustained at 39 kt at Hutchinson KS! Local WFOs have issued high wind warnings for a good chunk of central KS.

This is just as tough a forecast as expected, so my confidence is pretty low on the details. If the mid to upper 50s dewpoints can back northwestward up to the dryline and discrete convection develops and persists, still could certainly be some tors southcentral KS/northcentral OK, mainly near/after 00Z as the boundary layer decouples.

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