Wednesday, March 10, 2010

03/10/10 quick forecast

12Z RAOBs show skin-layer moisture at SHV/LIT...with >1km deep moisture now SE of a ~IAH-GLH-BNA line. Not sure BL trajectories will strongly favor pulling deeper moisture up to ne OK/se KS by sundown... so the 12z NAM output showing sfc "dewpoint holes" and high-ish LCLs may be reasonable. Also still dislike this type of pattern (intense UVVs/backing deep shear with time ahead of a compact vort)... as well as the terrain, though it's obviously even worse toward the Ozarks. Not sure hugging the quasi-stationary front in the better terrain in KS is viable given moderate NNE storm motions are expected (and low LCL/LFC may be no more favored there than just SE). It's possible parts of AR would be more favorable for tors (after dark) given stronger moisture/higher likelihood of discrete storms.